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Market Trend and Analysis of Six LED Demand and Supply in 2017

Jun 06, 2017

Topic 1: IT shows market applications:

TV market trends


In response to wide gamut market demand, a variety of high-color saturation of the way to enhance the introduction of the city, including KSF or QD Film to enhance color saturation, up to BT 2020 80-85%. 2017 TV models can be seen, the latest launch of the 4014 B + G LED with KSF phosphor, BT 2020 can reach 80% -85%, other Korean manufacturers are expected to follow up quickly.


Directly under the LED TV is still more use of flip chip LED products, CSP LED mainly introduced by the Korean factory, 2016 to 1313/1616 LED products, 2017 will be 1111/1313 LED-based. LEDinside is expected to follow the HDR market demand, will be able to accelerate the CSP LED product introduction.


Other advanced technologies for television applications include QLED, OLED, Laser TV, and new developments in 2017. QLED TV on behalf of Samsung, TCL, Hisense, etc .; LG and China TV brand factory is to support OLED TV.


Projector Market Trends


Commercial projector market, the total volume of the total stability of the maintenance of 700 to 8 million units. However, with the LCD TV costs down, size continues to enlarge, now you can see 80-inch TV into the commercial and school education space, coupled with the touch with the 80-inch touch panel market gradually in the Chinese market, commercial The number of projector shipments decreased year by year, in 2020 only reached 6 million shipments forecast.


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Commercial projectors are mainly used for indoor conference rooms, school education space, etc., luminous flux concentrated in the 2,000lm-3,000lm, the largest product, followed by 3000lm-4000lm. As the light source technology continues to improve, coupled with the brightness and quality as a positive relationship, so the brightness demand increased year by year. It is estimated that the market share of more than 3,000 lm by 2020 will reach 43%.


At present, the projector commonly used bulbs are metal halogen bulbs, UHE and UHP three, the general life of about 6000 hours. At present, more than 2,000 lm commercial projector, the main light source is still the traditional light bulb, but because of the traditional light bulb but short life and energy consumption, so gradually replaced by a new type of light, such as LED or laser light source.


To LED light source, because the LED brightness and heat still have bottlenecks, so the main attack below 2,000lm consumer market and home theater, the future with the technical upgrading and cost reduction, will gradually rush about 3,000lm Of the market; laser light source in the brightness, product life and color saturation on the advantage, the only drawback for the high price. However, the laser light source with bright brightness, long product life, projector design is more light, the laser light source in 2020 will be estimated to reach 30% market penetration.

Theme 2: lighting market trends:

Global and China COB revenue ranking


The current global COB market leader is still an international manufacturer, and Chinese manufacturers are also continuing to introduce new products to seize market share. The top five are Citizen, CREE, Lumileds, Nichia, Samsung. Chinese manufacturers ranked in the face of the growth rate of manufacturers under the influence of the speed of expansion, and 2015 ranked slightly different.


Stage lamp application market


In 2017, the global LED stage lamp market size reached 740 million US dollars, an increase of 14%, the next few years slowdown in growth, but still maintain sustained growth. By 2020, the scale is expected to grow to more than $ 1 billion. LED stage lamp current penetration rate of about 39%, by 2020, the penetration rate will reach 50%.


At present, OSRAM, billion light, as well as days and other manufacturers have introduced stage-related products, including monochrome and color mixing, to achieve high brightness and high light efficiency.


The main technical gate of the LED stage lamp includes heat control, light distribution and light quality management. LED stage lights compared to the traditional stage, has its incomparable advantages, such as more energy efficient, more fresh color, long life and easy to use, etc .; also will face higher costs, variety than the single and uneven quality of the challenge.

Theme 3: Automotive lighting market trends:

Forecast of the Scale of Traditional Passenger Cars


China's average power consumption of the LED are slightly lower than the international, and the use of low-power light source LED attitude than the international average to the positive, so the use of the number of stars than the general practice to high.


The use of headlights because of the average number of stars in 2017 in China in 2010, the number of people will continue to decline in 2020, 2021 estimated far and near the output value of 881 million dollars (2015 ~ 2021 CAGR: 48%).

The introduction of the light guide plate in the taillight height, associated with the original market (OE Market) in the use of the number of RCL, the average number of stars in China for 35 LED products.


New energy passenger car market size forecast


Headlights the highest growth rate: for new energy passenger cars, because the brand of vehicles is more concentrated, the sales of the economy is also a high scale, so the new energy vehicles in the LED import opportunities are also the highest.


China's passenger car lighting regulations are the same, so the electric car must also meet the general passenger car lighting regulations, headlights because of low permeability and higher unit price, in 2017 the output value is still 2.3 million dollars, All new energy passenger car with the highest value of LED output.


Long - term development potential of China 's automobile market


Whether it is passenger cars or commercial vehicles, new energy vehicles are China's focus on the development of vehicles, from the perspective of the demand for LED are also concentrated in the high power headlights and taillights assembly.


The focus of the traditional passenger car, in addition to the headlights, the other LED applications in the establishment of the brand's image-based, such as a very high brand recognition of the daytime lights to enhance the car interior entertainment panels and so on , With China's domestic car supply chain technology is expected to gradually improve, will also allow all types of automotive LED penetration rate of rapid increase.

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Topic 4: Display Market Trends;

The small pitch LED display can be roughly divided into four application areas. Including studio (15%), security control room (16%), commercial display (40%), and public and retail use (29%). It is expected that in the case of many competitors to join the situation, the small gap display market profit margins will be some erosion, but the overall market size in 2017 reached 1.141 billion US dollars, is expected in 2021 will reach 1.77 billion US dollars; 2015 ~ 2021 is expected CAGR reached 23%.


2017 US CES consumer electronics exhibition, the Japanese manufacturers SONY CLEDIS display much concern in the industry, because the technology for the future development of Micro LED, with inspiring significance. Therefore, the CEO of HY Ping said that CLEDIS main market will be replaced by a certain size range of existing small spacing LED display, such as car exhibition hall, museum such a large size, high precision display purposes. Micro LED display products include the following advantages: a wider perspective, higher contrast, better quality, cost reduction, seamless stitching.


However, taking into account the cost of the surface, the traditional LED display, LED display with the dot pitch miniature, the traditional LED packaging costs accounted for the proportion of the overall display module will rise sharply. The same size and point spacing Micro LED display, at this stage of the theoretical estimates, the cost structure compared to the small pitch LED display will be very different. Especially in the cost of LED will be reduced very much, but in addition to the cost of Micro LED, LEDinside that Micro LED display cost will account for the highest part of the transfer mode and what kind of drive program.


The future Micro LED display penetration depends on the price and cost of decline. At present, many developers have Micro LED display set to a higher priority development of products, I believe that in the next 3 years, the technology will be more mature, will help Micro LED display from the high-end niche market Into the mainstream application market.


Topic 5: Infrared LED Market Trends: 

IR LED With the rise of VR devices, although the 2016 IR LED in the VR device on the output value of only $ 14 million. But the future is still no small growth space. The VR device capable of somatosensory detection can be roughly divided into two main positioning devices: Inside-out Tracking (hTC Vive) and Outside-in Tracking external access (Ouclus Rift). Infrared LED and infrared laser products with CCD and CMOS camera as a tracking and positioning. However, the virtual reality device is still in the early stages of development, so each vendor has a different design, coupled with product development on the impact of production capacity and other factors, IR LED market demand still need to continue to observe.


Inside-out Tracking external reception operation principle will use more infrared laser or infrared LED, although the cost of computing a substantial increase in the number of consumers to accept the degree of acceptance, but the higher accuracy, it will not cause consumer dizziness and so on. The future of the Inside-out Tracking platform, the camp alliance, brand management, IP patent licensing protection, content management (Content) will quickly drive the supply market development, while the product costs have the opportunity to decline, Inside-out Tracking external reception The positioning device will win the city.

Topic 6: LED supply market analysis: 

China LED manufacturers rely on the cost advantage, in the low-end market share gradually increased. So the international LED manufacturers lost to competition, have OEM manufacturers commissioned by the Chinese manufacturers, so China's LED manufacturers continue to full capacity, and at the same time expand the LED packaging devices, and LED epitaxial wafer production capacity to undertake the international manufacturers OEM orders The


1H17 benefited from the traditional lighting and backlighting application of the season effect, the majority of LED manufacturers capacity utilization has picked up. But some of the new LED chip manufacturers will be in the second quarter, the third quarter, one after another into the MOCVD machine, it is expected 2H17 will have a more obvious output to the market, will affect the industry supply and demand this year.


As the first line of China's LED chip manufacturers continue to expand production capacity, so in 2016, the Chinese manufacturers of LED epitaxial wafer production accounted for the global market share has increased to 45%. Which a small number of leading manufacturers such as Sanan, Hua Can photoelectric and other market share continued to increase.

MOCVD equipment in the past in Europe and the United States enterprises, but with China-made MOCVD equipment through the Chinese LED chip manufacturers to verify, will be introduced in 2017 part of the LED chip manufacturers. As the equipment prices are cheaper, it is expected to further into the low cost.


As the new machine production capacity to enhance, so can get subsidies, and the purchase of new machines in China LED manufacturers cost will continue to decrease. Compared to the past in 2010 ~ 2011 a large number of manufacturers to expand capacity, the cost gap has been significantly opened, will gradually withdraw from the market.

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